Founded in 1996, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) utilizes forward-looking indexes to examine and identify patterns of economic growth. Eschewing traditional methods of economic forecasting, which are typically based on econometric models, ECRI developed an approach that has not only accurately predicted the majority of recent U.S. recessions, but has also proven useful when developing business strategies and government policies.

ECRI’s unique methodology was first developed by co-founder Dr. Geoffrey Moore, who followed in the footsteps of his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns, in closely examining business cycles. Their research led to the establishment of the first leading indicators of revival and recession, as well as the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI).